An AP-NORC poll found that Trump’s support doesn’t seem to fall below 40%. Individual issues or slight re-framing of specific issues may be higher or lower, but the approval rating doesn’t drop below 40%. I don’t know what it would take to break the lower floor at this point. It’s not the poor job people believe he’s done for the economy. Certainly, it’s not tyranny and overreach by a corrupt president. I also suspect that invoking the insurrection act in Minneapolis won’t do be that bridge too far. And there may be additional stops along the way, such as just above 35% where his die hard supporters truly wouldn’t abandon him for shooting someone on 5th avenue.

It’s pointless to talk about what the Republican party was even twenty years ago. Right now it is a vehicle for Trump through which Trump exercises his power, some wealthy people see a chance to line their pockets or reshape the world according to their egos, and for many Americans to vent their anger at a changing world. I think the break down of the polling data by race and gender illuminates some of what motivates that support. Of course it’s not a perfect alignment, and sometimes it just pushes against that 40% floor, but there is a difference between the way white Americans view this president and all other races view the president. Even among Hispanics, about a third still approve of the president. And a difference between the way women and men view the president.

I have long maintained that 40% support is more than sufficient for keeping an autocrat in power. When Gaddafi fell, it was because his support fell to near zero. When Nikolai Ceausescu fell, his support had cratered near zero. There just weren’t enough people willing to go into the street for them and plenty of people out to get them. Same with Mussolini, or Czar Nickolas, or Assad, Ferdinand Marcos, Louis XVI, or any one of a number of autocrats. Maybe some supporters saw the writing on the wall and realized it would only make it worse, but not change the outcome, if they died rallying around the dictator. Maybe some didn’t want to be torn apart in the bloody aftermath, and hoped their spurt of “good will” would cover up a lifetime of sins. Some of the autocrats even tried to stem the tide by giving in on some demands to gain some support, but at best that only delayed the inevitable. Maybe some genuinely lost faith. But at the end of the day, almost no one was willing to run to their aid.

Right now, Trump stands around 40%. A lot of things have to go bad before that drops to near zero. Maybe the economy is too good and their bellies are too full. The fallout from destroying the American system hasn’t hit them. And in some cases a lot will have to go wrong before it does. Regardless, there are plenty of people who would still rally and defend the president. We saw it recently as the war power resolution died in the Senate. A move congress would normally support to maintain their own influence on foreign policy. This defeat means we are even less likely to see restraint in moving against (and I can’t believe I’m writing this) Greenland. (Something the perfume guy thinks he turn into a few more dollars in his personal wealth).

I also think that, at least in the present moment, that 40% number is artificially low. I think it’s more like a 45% or even 50% approval when it comes time to vote. For many reasons, ranging from the fact our monkey brains love a big, angry, chest-thumping primate to lead the herd, to our need for security in a world made less secure by Trump. But mostly because I think a large number of people are not comfortable with their racist and chauvinistic attitudes. When they think “welfare,” they don’t think of the white family down their own road, but the people of color in ungrateful “Democrat” cities leaching off their hard work. Or people who ascribe their economic insecurity to the deterioration of cultural norms that centered men. Despite the statistics, despite the fact the deepest red states are the biggest beneficiaries of federal spending, despite the fact men are just not showing up, they see white America and male America as providing while much of non-white America and women as selfishly taking advantage. They may say they “disapprove,” but when are forced to choose, they choose Trump.

Trump also has a working patronage system. That helps bring the monied interests in line. He has a friendly Supreme Court, and is able to pressure any Republicans (either through threats to their continued re-election or threats to their families) to toe the line. The goal is to keep pushing so any particular act is only outrageous for a short time. Most people fail to understand that if you shoot one woman at a protest, that’s a lead story. If you shoot people on a regular cadence, eventually we just track the totals. Much like mass shooting are now almost part of the background static of our lives. He realizes his best defense is not to cross the line until he needs to back off. It’s to cross the line by just the right amount and keep on crossing it. It will take months for a court to stop him, if ever. Among the uneducated it appears he did have the right. And among the educated, he’s secured the right in practice. His opponents are pushed back, defending the new line.

I don’t know how we got here. I’m not even sure where “here” is. I do believe the single most important thing we can do is to vote in the upcoming midterm elections. Not because it will usher in a group of leaders who will turn a tied against the president, but because it will reduce the avenues he has for action. He wants to boost military spending by 45% and the ICE budget has exploded to insane levels. Cutting either of those will make the democrats look weak to some voters, something they would rather not risk for the 2028 general election. But it would at least restrain those impulses. And like all authoritarians, the current crop knows growing the military and law enforcement is a means of being able to exercise internal control. Adding more boots to the Army will be just as much about holding a large territory in martial law, as it will be to counter China. (Which I think will largely be allowed to do what it wants in a little while). The best thing we could do is deny him to tools to occupy more than a handful of mid-sized cities.

I say the estimate of his support is wrong because it allows us to come to the wrong conclusions. Like if support drops below that magic number, it’s a sign it’s slipping and the end of Trump is coming. That’s a completely incorrect assumption. It could be that it needs to drop below 20% or 10%. Maybe with 5% die-hard supporters, concentrated in law-enforcement and the military, an autocrat survives. But also, at the end of the day, it’s not 40%. If people were forced to choose between Trump and a Kamala Harris they choose Trump because he’s the right race and the right gender. They don’t consciously scream “white power” as they vote. It is their unconscious bias, a lack of education, and disinterest in the norms and laws that are violated. He is backed by the recipients of a patronage system that provides resources to promote him, his policies, and his candidates. Patrons who have no obvious interests beyond their egos and their money. And that’s why he’s not weak at all at this point. I wouldn’t even say he’s cornered. I think his supporters and backers realize any discussion of Trump being on the ropes is a full dose of hopeium. And that’s why I don’t see too many of them doing anything to hedge their bets.