There are a lot of things going on, including a change in investors’s estimates of the risk of holding long Japanese bonds. But there is a “sell America” trade based on the erratic US policy. The way I read it, starting in April the dollar enters a trading range. That coincides with the bat-shit crazy tariff announcements. But it’s not an abandonment of the dollar in any way. However, with the President saying he’s fine in the dollar falling, that’s giving folks the green light to sell dollars.

This hourly chart shows how quick this has happened. As of the time I write this, it may not result in a ‘real’ breakout from the range. It could just be a reaction down and a reaction back up. But it does show there is real energy to pull the dollar down.

What happens when the dollar falls? Metals and oil tend to go up with a falling dollar. In a sense oil, gold, silver, and to a lesser degree copper, operate as a currency. As the dollar sinks against other currencies, those commodities become more expensive. As do imports, which are already tariffed. Which is pro-inflationary. However, it does help make US exports more attractive. Of course the real drop occurred because of the statement below by the orange moron.