Next week is going to be a pretty news-heavy week.

• Monday – Institute of Supply-chain Managers (ISM) manufacturing PMI
• Tuesday – JOLTS
• Wednesday – ISM services PMI
• Friday – Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Consumer Sentiment.

Outside the weekly unemployment claims (which may be a useless metric right now), I’m looking at the JOLTS number to see the level of openings. I think it’s exaggerated, as companies have openings for jobs that are unrelated to an actual job for which they would hire someone, the trend is important. And Friday, of course, we get the higher quality read on jobs. However, it has been plagued with data collection problems for the last few years (blame the respondents not turning in paperwork or delayed paperwork rather than “cooking the books”).

What I’m looking for in the ISM numbers is data related to prices. Do they indicate inflation pressures? If there are price pressures, I’m expecting to see price pressure on the CPI number week after next. That would mean short term rates should stay steady for now. That’s going to put upward pressure on long rates (over 10 years). The 10 year rate is the rate that has a clearer impact on economic activity. The Fed only has influence over short term rates. As we get to 5, 10, 20, and 30 years, their influence fades and other economic concerns (such as inflation or economic growth) come in play.