I don’t think the gold market thinks so. Price action is essentially flat. This may change on Friday, but right now it looks like gold is having a consolidation moment after the run-up. I don’t think a lot of countries want to hold gold as a reserve, as its volatility means your reserves are subject to constant swings. The traditional reserve was the dollar, but many countries are looking at an administration willing to subvert its own laws and weaponize its currency. So that makes the Euro more attractive, but it lacks the depth and breadth of market the collar occupies.

The next proof point would be an appreciation of the dollar combined with falling prices on bonds. I see some, but not much movement. Again, that could change by Friday. But the dollar and interest rate aren’t signalling a belief the US will attack this weekend. The dollar continues to sit in it’s range and the upward movement is as easily explained by the strong economy and the likelihood interest rates don’t change until mid-summer.

What we learned from Venezuela is firstly the operation was a surprise. Second, we have some tactics and weaponry a lot of us didn’t realize we had. Third, the US had no interest in anything but a quick win. Forth, there is no interest in democracy or actual regime change. Fifth the goal, explicitly stated, is control of oil and oil sales.

Thanks to Charle’s brother, the news has a lot on the arrest of Andrew. Iran is below the fold at the NY Times, not on the front page at Bloomberg, and missing from The Guardian. I’ll get to the AP and BBC later, but likely the same. People aren’t looking that way and the administration has tamped down the rhetoric, making it look like talks are underway. No reason to attack if people are talking, right?

The attacks preceding the abduction may have been probes to test the speed, reaction, and air defenses of Venezuela. I suspect we have that dialed in on Iran after the raids with Israel. It’s likely we have good intelligence and wouldn’t need to probe their defenses by striking other targets. After all, we dropped bombs on their most sensitive nuclear facilities with impunity. I suspect we can strike anywhere in the country at any time. And likely one result of the Ukraine war is highly detailed information on Russian air defenses at their most capable.

It’s not likely the US would swoop in and take the Ayatollah back to Rikers in cuffs. But it might be a decapitation strike. There are plenty more religious leaders waiting in the wings to replace any “martyred” leader. So I’m not sure what lasting chaos or policy change it might cause. If there’s anything to strike that would have lasting impact, it’s the revolutionary guard and secret police forces. Maybe target the control and command systems that enable them to suppress internal dissent? After reading about their brutal response to protesters, I doubt anyone would shed tears for secret police and military that shoot at civilians.

The moon this weekend is heading to first quarter. The next new moon is March 3. This doesn’t matter as much as some people think, with the assault for Maduro taking place, as January 3 was a full moon. The moon will set in Tehran shortly after 10 PM, local time. Which means it will be moonless in the early hours of the morning. (The moon isn’t always up at night – remember?)

What will the US want? I don’t think anything but a vague “lay off the dissidents” and demands on the oil. It might have some added benefits of keeping Iranian drones out of Russian hands, to fire on Ukraine. With all the ships and capabilities arriving in the Gulf, a timer has started. There’s a point at which those assets have to be rotated out for maintenance and refurbishment, and to give their crews some time off. A build-up can’t sit there forever. A “permanent” presence, simply means the US rotates ships in and out of the region. It’s not the same ship, years on end.

I don’t expect the US to land troops or in any way take a long-term approach. I suspect it will be much like Venezuela, meaning they realize no one is going to keep paying attention to see it spiral into shit or realize nothing changed. I don’t know what targets they intend to hit. Maybe it will be the re-built nuclear sites. Maybe it will be the revolutionary guard barracks and headquarters. Maybe it will be government buildings. I have no idea. But I don’t think Iran will be able to retaliate in any meaningful way and I don’t expect Iran to be able to stop the attack.

[Note] With this administration, watching the markets may be a good indication they’re about to do/not do something. They tend to be leaky with non-public information.