This is going to be a light news week.

Tuesday – Case Schiller home price index.
Friday – CPI/PPI data

The other thing to watch is who is filing for refunds for tariffs paid. There are two levels of tariffs at play. The first are the tariffs in place before we started this descent into stupidity, and the yo-yo tariffs that have come on and off since “Liberation Day.” There is an orderly process for refunds, but not everyone is sure these refunds will be orderly. It may result in a class action suit to compel the refunds, but we’ll see.

CNBC estimates about 175 billion subject to refunds. That’s in line with other estimates from 130 to 175 billion. That’s considerably less than the additional tariff revenue collected since April 2025. That’s because the other tariffs were under different laws, which are still in place. For example, if there’s a finding of an unfair trade practice, a different law is applicable. The process under those laws requires some additional work. Whether it’s all kabuki theater or it will be done in good faith, I can’t say. (Despite my suspicions). I’m not an expert, but my guess is the section 122 tariffs (the sudden imposition of a 15% tariff on “global” imports that expires in 150 days) will be a bridge to get all the paperwork complete for other tariff statutes.

That said, the random 100% today and 20% tomorrow and then 55% the day after tariff announcements were under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. That’s what the Supreme Court said was unconstitutional, because under their reading, it did not grant tariff authority. Section 122 requires Congress to reauthorize the tariffs in 150 days. I think Republican support for that is far from automatic. That means going into Labor Day (when most people start to think about elections), Congress people would have to explain why they authorized more taxes on American businesses.

The ability for Trump to set up a primary challenge to House and Senate candidates will have been long past, and it will be the Democrat challenger that candidates will be the big concern for Republicans. If the administration wants section 122 tariffs (the 15% just imposed) extended beyond late July, it will have to convince the Republican House and 22 Senate Republicans to vote for it, knowing they will hand their Democratic opponents a blunt instrument which will be used to beat them, repeatedly. Or, they will have to explain why tariffs on French wine and cheese is a national security issue.

This is an administration that is threatening Netflix with “consequences” if they keep Susan Rice on their board, given Netflix needs government approval for their upcoming merger with Warner Brothers. Their willingness, and the willingness of the billionaires who are ideologically aligned, to use every legal and possibly illegal means to keep at least the Senate will be used. These people realize if the Democrats do come to power, they won’t retaliate in the same way the Trump administration will retaliate. A Democrat president will probable drag their feet on firing the partisan hacks, like Brendan Carr, when they get into office. So why should they care about what Democrats might do them, should power change.

Nor is it clear that the election will not result in massive chaos. As was evident in the 2020 election, claims of fraud went forward even though it (implicitly) invalidates Republicans that won down-ballot. They might have a Democrat win a House race, and a Republican win the Senate race, but still claim the vote was fraudulent. And the 40% or so of the country that’s “ride or die” with Trump, they may even be more amped up than 2020. Along with the fact social media execs have shifted right, ff not captured by a system of patronage, that suggests they’ll be protected if they help Trump. For example, showing they are willing to exempt Apple ICs from tariffs, but also “mentioning” that Apple News appears to favor a left-wing liberal agenda.

2026 is not in the bag for a Blue Wave. Nor is 2028 in the bag for a transfer of power. At this point Trump is still respecting the decision of the courts, if only grudgingly, and sometimes completely with contempt. If the energy is to impeach and prosecute him for stealing billions of dollars (for example, transferring US funds to his board of pieces of shit), he may pull off the last guard rail. A lot of his supporters among the elite are not ride or die. They know they may not go to real jail if caught for criminal activity, they may lose a lot of money. But if the deal is better to back Trump over the US constitution, they may back Trump.

I would like to think that between tariffs and immigration enforcement Republicans would be handed a soul-searching political ass-pounding. But social media feeds can have an insidious impact on political opinion. Just like Tik-Tok’s algorithm fed several many times more images of murdered Gazans than murdered Israelis, and helped from the initial push for protests of Israel. Then Israel managed to provide more than enough reason to protest their invasion of the Gaza strip and continued occupation of the West Bank. But that’s for another day. The point is, that among Tik-Tok users, those videos were very effective. And I think, with the transfer of Tik-Tok away from China to Trump’s friends, I think the feeds will be manipulated to stunt what should be an epic smashing.

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A side note if you think other governments pay tariffs. You are ignorant. Many people have explained how tariffs work and it’s the company importing the good or service that pays the tariff. Since China doesn’t import anything into the United States, it’s US companies like Wal-Mart that import Chinese made goods, it’s the US company that pays the tariffs. There are so many explanations of this around that if you don’t understand it, you’re a fucking idiot.