We have no visibility, or little visibility, into the fraction of the GOP that feels comfortable with right wing social policy, but is there for economic reasons. Or pseudo-economic reasons. I once had a discussions with someone who felt it was worse to go from a top marginal rate of 33% to 40% on his federal income tax, even if his income doubled. The funny part is he cited the state and local taxes he used to pay, as a New Yorker, but no longer had to pay since moving out. The hilarious part, given his job, is I doubted he was very far in the 28% bracket. Or people with almost no active trading screaming about equal treatment of capital gains and regular income, even if their house (by far their biggest capital gain) were exempted.

Sometimes peoples’ views on taxation have less to do with reality than with their status as temporarily embarrassed billionaires. Or vague notions that the “job creators” would leave the country if we taxed them (like they’re moving to Florida and Texas from New York… sort of). I’m not sure where they would go. Maybe they would try to move their business to low tax jurisdictions, like Europe, or where they might have a less heavy government hand, like China. Or that they would decide the next marginal dollar just wasn’t worth it. And would “slack off,” as if they did everything at the family offices or companies they helm. These are people who’d gladly trade your grandmother for a nickle.

These idiots may code socially liberal, like their favorite niece or nephew is “trans” and they are careful about pronouns and dead-naming. Or they might be gay. But have no problem backing bigots. Or enjoy recreational drugs, especially of the mind-expanding variety. Although I sometimes wonder if they’re using them correctly. They know it’s not a suppository, right? Abortion is okay. Although they don’t get too bent out of shape over taking rights from women. They love crypto currency because of some strange notion about a broken fiat-currency system. Some are staunchly independent, except almost always vote Republican because they think government is out of control, or would like to see a balanced budget. (Something no Republican has done since maybe Eisenhower,). But they would rather talk about sports, crypto-currencies, or video games.

Because they code two ways, I suspect they throw off our sentiment about the country. They might answer a survey saying they are unhappy with the way that Trump is running the country. They may express ire at rounding up immigrants, although they will also talk about “doing it the right way.” They might have liberal girlfriends or wives, or conservative girlfriends or wives, and write “that stuff” off as their partner’s thing. They’re independent. But they will vote Republican at the national level. They’re not Republican, they’re independents, and will point to (for example) supporting someone like Spanberger in Virginia. You know, a “normal” Democrat. But when push comes to shove, at the national level, they have pulled the lever for Trump, more than once, if not all three times.

I suspect status and other grievances in their psyche may play a bigger role in how they vote. Even though they code liberal they like to think they’re a man’s man. (And if you haven’t figured it out – I’m talking about men in particular). Some of them are well educated, even if they haven’t opened a book for pleasure since college. They are not having the career or age of adult manhood they anticipated. Something I suspect they covet, as they prefer super-hero movies, John Wick, or the “pre-woke” Lord of the Rings. They tend to listen to man-o-sphere podcasts. I think there’s definitely an aspect of anxiety about their position and their power. (A lot of them are technically adept but feel they lack power or feel they are bossed around).

This mass of mostly men (almost exclusively men) are part of the reason the mid-terms will be so hard to predict. The expectation, which if the vote were held today I think would be certain, is a wave of anger pushes even safe Republicans out of power. We wind up with a flipped House and Senate. But I’m already seeing more right-wing content show up in my social media feed, so we have to deal with that bleeding off the weak over the next 8 months.

If they view the election as a chance to reign in, or course correct, the president, they may vote for Democrats. Especially since they know the president makes all the decisions, but “congress has a role.” Voting for a Democrats might tell the Republicans to back it off a little. Or, if they are well managed and well messaged by the stupid amount of money that will be coming from the Ellisons, Musk, or any one of a number of injured billionaires, they may ride or die with the Republican party. Woke democrats will be out of control. And when they pull that lever, they think they are doing so as Frodo, not some anonymous orc in Sauron’s armies. After all, they are independent voters.