I guessed that it would have made more sense to attack in complete darkness towards mid-march, but it appears that the US and Israel aren’t worried about Iran’s anti-air capabilities. The ten days turned out to be bullshit and Trump couldn’t wait any longer. Everything he claimed Obama would do about attacking Iran has turned into a confession. Apparently the discussion of Trump having committed sexual assault against a minor was getting too hot.

While it appears the US and Israel have free reign in the Iranian sky, they are not going to land troops. I’m not even certain they really think there will be any kind of popular uprising. If the IRGC is hit, that will hamper their ability to respond to revolts, but it will not stop it. They will likely already have dispersed, making it harder to score decisive hits on their leadership, infrastructure, or personnel. They will continue to attack external targets where they can. The guards will drop anyone they think is an agitator, with an “I don’t have time for this bullshit” attitude.

And we’ve seen where Trump went into Venezuela for regime change but left the regime in-tact. Ultimately, as we discovered in Iraq and Afghanistan, you can’t keep a government in power or eject a government with just air strikes. And if the people don’t want the government, no matter how good, it will not succeed. There will likely be no regime change. There will just be a number of dead Iranians. Maybe some destroyed materiel, but we’ve seen they can reconstitute it fairly quickly.