We have no visibility, or little visibility, into the fraction of the GOP that feels comfortable with right wing social policy, but is there for economic reasons. Or pseudo-economic reasons. I once had a discussions with someone who felt it was worse to go from a top marginal rate of 33% to 40% on his federal income tax, even if his income doubled. The funny part is he cited the state and local taxes he used to pay, as a New Yorker, but no longer had to pay since moving out. The hilarious part, given his job, is I doubted he was very far in the 28% bracket. Or people with almost no active trading screaming about equal treatment of capital gains and regular income, even if their house (by far their biggest capital gain) were exempted.

Sometimes peoples’ views on taxation have less to do with reality than with their status as temporarily embarrassed billionaires. Or vague notions that the “job creators” would leave the country if we taxed them (like they’re moving to Florida and Texas from New York… sort of). I’m not sure where they would go. Maybe they would try to move their business to low tax jurisdictions, like Europe, or where they might have a less heavy government hand, like China. Or that they would decide the next marginal dollar just wasn’t worth it. And would “slack off,” as if they did everything at the family offices or companies they helm. These are people who’d gladly trade your grandmother for a nickle.

These idiots may code socially liberal, like their favorite niece or nephew is “trans” and they are careful about pronouns and dead-naming. Or they might be gay. But have no problem backing bigots. Or enjoy recreational drugs, especially of the mind-expanding variety. Although I sometimes wonder if they’re using them correctly. They know it’s not a suppository, right? Abortion is okay. Although they don’t get too bent out of shape over taking rights from women. They love crypto currency because of some strange notion about a broken fiat-currency system. Some are staunchly independent, except almost always vote Republican because they think government is out of control, or would like to see a balanced budget. (Something no Republican has done since maybe Eisenhower,). But they would rather talk about sports, crypto-currencies, or video games.

Because they code two ways, I suspect they throw off our sentiment about the country. They might answer a survey saying they are unhappy with the way that Trump is running the country. They may express ire at rounding up immigrants, although they will also talk about “doing it the right way.” They might have liberal girlfriends or wives, or conservative girlfriends or wives, and write “that stuff” off as their partner’s thing. They’re independent. But they will vote Republican at the national level. They’re not Republican, they’re independents, and will point to (for example) supporting someone like Spanberger in Virginia. You know, a “normal” Democrat. But when push comes to shove, at the national level, they have pulled the lever for Trump, more than once, if not all three times.

I suspect status and other grievances in their psyche may play a bigger role in how they vote. Even though they code liberal they like to think they’re a man’s man. (And if you haven’t figured it out – I’m talking about men in particular). Some of them are well educated, even if they haven’t opened a book for pleasure since college. They are not having the career or age of adult manhood they anticipated. Something I suspect they covet, as they prefer super-hero movies, John Wick, or the “pre-woke” Lord of the Rings. They tend to listen to man-o-sphere podcasts. I think there’s definitely an aspect of anxiety about their position and their power. (A lot of them are technically adept but feel they lack power or feel they are bossed around).

This mass of mostly men (almost exclusively men) are part of the reason the mid-terms will be so hard to predict. The expectation, which if the vote were held today I think would be certain, is a wave of anger pushes even safe Republicans out of power. We wind up with a flipped House and Senate. But I’m already seeing more right-wing content show up in my social media feed, so we have to deal with that bleeding off the weak over the next 8 months.

If they view the election as a chance to reign in, or course correct, the president, they may vote for Democrats. Especially since they know the president makes all the decisions, but “congress has a role.” Voting for a Democrats might tell the Republicans to back it off a little. Or, if they are well managed and well messaged by the stupid amount of money that will be coming from the Ellisons, Musk, or any one of a number of injured billionaires, they may ride or die with the Republican party. Woke democrats will be out of control. And when they pull that lever, they think they are doing so as Frodo, not some anonymous orc in Sauron’s armies. After all, they are independent voters.

The practice of calling something what it is seems jarring sometimes. None of us want to come to the horrible conclusion what we’re looking at is as bad as we think it is. That’s why it’s nice to see the NY Times call out voting restrictions for what they are: an attempt to blunt the Democrats taking the house and possibly Senate. Do I think Republicans know better than to believe that illegal immigrants voted in 2020? At this point, I don’t know. I think the person who originates a lie knows it’s a lie, but maybe not the person who repeats it. And human beings have an amazing ability to believe something that suits them.

A lot of journalism, in order to avoid seeming biased, gives both sides a pass. That’s why people who pushed an anti-science agenda that carbon emissions aren’t ruining the climate got an equal hearing with actual scientists. This is especially true if the denier had some scientific credentials, even if they weren’t in anything related to meteorology or climate work. Putting one person “pro” and once person “con” in a discussion group makes it seem like there is a split on opinion. Even though you can see the impacts of a changing climate, you find something else to believe. Or you just don’t believe it, because it’s easier not to. Even with a top tier education, all the information in the world at you fingertips, and being accomplished in your own field, does not prevent you from convincing yourself of something that isn’t true. It allowed you to believe that the scientific field is split, and therefor no one knows. And if it’s all about money, maybe its the 60k a year climate researcher that’s making a mint on this.

Often, this follows familiar contours. We just went through the Epstein file dump and saw the degree to which people tried to excuse, minimize, hide, or ignore what it was about Jeffrey Epstein that was so vile. And what it implied about him and the people that frequented his island. It has become clear that at many turns people could have named Epstein for what he was and what he did, but chose not to. Not because they don’t abhor trafficking and raping children, but it would mean naming themselves as abetters and enablers, and their friends (and possibly family) as rapists. I’m not sure what they allowed themselves to think, or what to believe. I don’t think they can think of themselves in those terms. I don’t think any decent person can, so there has to be another explanation. He’s mentoring them. They’re actually older than they look. Maybe those girls are getting something out of it too, staying on a nice island. And for some of the abusers, probably that if she really didn’t want to, she would have left the room.

Unless we want to fall into that same pattern of behavior, at some point we have to name the Republican party and its attempts to illegitimately secure power. They intend to keep eligible voters out of the polls to hold power in the 2026 mid-terms and the 2028 election. This is an undemocratic attempt to maintain one party rule by tampering with elections in a way that gives a thin veneer of legality. Enough of a veneer to let people continue to believe it’s for securing or protecting the elections. That they’re the good guys, because otherwise, it would make them no better than any other one-party rule dictatorship. They have to believe there is a problem with illegitimate voting, despite the evidence to the contrary. Because if they actually named what they are doing out loud, if they acknowledge it to themselves, they will realize the enormity of what they are doing.

This is why the facts don’t matter. Because the belief is based on what they want to be true. For example, Biden won on the presidential ticket, but Republicans won down-ballot. Does that mean that those results are invalid? It doesn’t matter to them. If you look at pieces of evidence like the Utah audit of illegal voters, that found essentially no problem, it doesn’t matter to them. And it’s no longer just a few fringe lunatics like Sidney Powell, who came off as nuts. In terms of people who’ve convinced themselves illegal immigrants voted, it’s likely a majority of the Republican caucus. If not almost all of the Republican caucus. Some are just dumb and gullible, but others have just convinced themselves this must be true. Otherwise, they will have their asses handed to them in a few months. And more importantly, if they can’t convince themselves, it just means they are anti-democratic and breaking with a fundamental tenant of being American.

Representation, voting, was the chief complaint of Americans that lead to independence. That the English parliament, across an ocean, was making decisions about English citizens that were denied the same representation available to people living in England. While many people look at the tax issues, it was that the taxes were imposed without the colonists feeling like they had a say in it. Denying eligible voters, in America, access to the ballot box makes one a traitor to the very idea of being American. And that’s what these laws intend to do. To take people who could vote, and have grievances about how the government is running, and turn them away by adding additional requirements for identification well beyond what is necessary. Or up-ending the constitution and imposing control over a function explicitly left to the states.

For example, say you were born overseas but became a US citizen. You are allowed to vote. The proposed laws require you to show a passport or birth certificate to vote. Your birth certificate is useless. You have to show a passport. I have always had a valid passport. But only half the country does. I’m assuming among that half are people a fair number are born overseas. It can take weeks to get a passport and there is a non-negligible price. Or if you are a woman, who changed her name after being married, you need to show both the passport and a marriage certificate. I’m sure my marriage certificate is around somewhere, but I’ve never had to show it. Women have been been skewing toward Democrats, as might more immigrants after the horrific ICE crackdowns. What better way to throw up a little roadblock to registering to vote. The icing on the cake will be to place ICE at polling places. The goal being to instill fear into people afraid they might get unlawfully arrested and spend weeks in detention before their citizenship is verified, don’t show. Why on earth would they think that? Because that has been happening to brown people, especially if they have an accent.

But, that’s only a few people, right? Think about how close the elections can be in the United States. We now consider a presidential election decisive if there’s a whole percentage point difference in the popular vote. You don’t have to keep 10% of the likely Democrats from voting. Maybe just have to keep a percent or two from voting. You might still lose the House, but maybe keep the Senate, and pretty much stay in power. Nothing a Democrat House does will pass a Republican Senate. And the slim margin is even more true during the presidential election. And on top of that, the administration will lean on broadcasters and social media to avoid spreading messages that will hurt them in the polls. While no longer under the cover white supremacists funnel money into Republican races. And what coercion by the FCC or FTC can’t handle, and money can’t buy, the patronage system pressure companies to fall in line.

But that may not be enough. You may get a large number of people voting for Democrats, even with all that suppression work. You might think the laws would prevent them from claiming fraud. It won’t. Just like 2020, they will let results that favor Republicans stand, while claiming Democrats cheated with illegal votes. If passage of voter id laws is blocked by either the Senate or impeded by the courts, they will claim the results were full of illegal votes. If the laws are passed, enacted, and allowed for the 2026 mid-terms, they will claim the laws weren’t enough, or that Democrat states failed to enforce them. And it won’t matter if those states are traditionally ‘red’ states. They will do everything they can to deny Democrats seats but will not attack a Republican win, even on the same ticket. They did this in 2020. They will do it in 2026 and 2028.

The voter id laws are a thing to help them structure their fantasies. In one sense they don’t matter. With the laws in-place, after a defeat in the mid-terms, they won’t care about audit trails, voter roles, manual re-counts, or whatever you propose. These are people who legitimately looked for traces of bamboo in paper to show it was from China. They cannot believe anything else than they lost because they cheated. Will there be Republicans that know they lost but still make the argument? Of course there are. Just as there were tobacco executives that realized smoking was killing people, was addictive, and they needed to get kids hooked as teenagers. And that their claims about the science not supporting the cancer claims was just a smoke screen. But plenty of people allowed themselves to be convinced tobacco wasn’t the problem, it wasn’t that addictive, it was their right to smoke, and that if teens smoked, it was the parents’ fault.

It may come to mass protests in November through January to force the Democrats to be seated in Congress. You can be assured that every procedural impediment to swearing in new Democrat congress members will be applied. Every court challenge to their win. Every counter protest (complete with stop the steal activists in battle-rattle and long guns) to declare the results invalid will be pushed. Every attempt to cower the media and social media narratives to de-legitimize the results will be taken. Every time a Republican is interviewed, they will focus on language tuned to resonate with their base and help them continue to believe the election is being stolen. That their country is being stolen. That their voice is being stolen. And their way of life will be stolen, if the Democrats win. But at the same time, accepting every Republican win as legitimate, not really up for discussion, or part of the clever plot.

Just as many Republicans have made it clear they feel voting is a privilege, not a right. Or that maybe their faith says we should allow head of household voting. Or that they can discern who the real Americans are, and only they should vote. Or, if push comes to shove, they can’t trust the ballot box to their satisfaction so there’s no point in having elections. We have over-used the word “fascist” way too often. The county requires separating recycling by type, and people scream it’s fascist. It’s lost its meaning. Authoritarian and autocratic don’t hit has hard as fascist used to hit. But make no mistake, what I’m seeing in America is little different from the slide that Turkey and Hungary took, and Poland was taking, to a single-party, failed democracy. If Orban loses, he may not leave power without blood in the street. Erdogan has shown a willingness to brutally crack down on his opposition and probably won’t leave without a revolt or military coup. And Putin consolidated power that ten years ago so people largely stopped questioning obvious murder.

If the Democrats do well enough in the polls come November, we may not have to listen to history rhyme as Americans fight to be represented. That even if you wipe out a few thousand votes here or there, it doesn’t make any difference and the House and Senate are both taken by Democrats. And that if you don’t acknowledge the election, you can’t seat a new Congress, and the business of the country stops. (I don’t put a full up coup beyond the pale at that point. You just don’t seat Congress and the president runs the country by fiat. Or tries to, in which case we’ll see which way the military heads.) But the fact that a blow-out or landslide is the only way we keep democracy going, kind of shows we’ve already lost. And lost because of the dumbest reason, that people have convinced themselves of something that isn’t true as they can’t just admit they are sheep who would rather give up their rights and live in a dictatorship.

“Trump has Overwhelmed Himself,” by Ezra Klein, points out one of the problems with flood the zone. That it removes focus from the ones doing the flooding. It makes it feel like the entire White House is in chaos. I don’t know if Trump supporters see it that way, but for those who pay attention, it floods their attention as well. I assumed it would have a built in advantage because of the short attention spans of most people. Something horrible happens in the US, something that feels like we should never forget it happened. A year or two later we see a news story about an anniversary of the event and think “wow – that happened and I should not have forgotten.”

As much as the murder of Alex Pretti at the hands of paramilitary forces is tragic, will we remember a few months from now? What horror shows did you remember from 2025? Do you remember he gutted US AID? Do you remember DOGE rifling through government databases, in locked rooms, with no supervision and the windows blanked out? Do you remember the insanely ridiculous tariff calculations? Signal gate? And we’ve become accustomed to the absolutely corrupt use of the pardon power. The president has been issuing pay for play pardons to convicted scammers. That’s a thing. It barely makes the news. Remember when Clinton got roasted for a couple of questionable pardons at the end of his second term? Trump does that and more on a weekly basis.

I think part of the flood the zone strategy is to keep crisis after crisis going so the real problems don’t surface. Look at the companies footing the bill for the ballroom or the sycophantic Melania movie. Alone, in previous administrations, would have come across as so corrupt as to be career ending. However, when we’re threatening NATO countries, who’s paying attention to the graft from World Liberty Financial, the Trump crypto scam and bribe channel?

I don’t know if Trump wants to run again. But if he doesn’t, he’s going to walk away with as much lucre as he and his family can steal. The party that went purple in the face with rage over Hunter Biden clumsily parlaying his supposed connections to wealth, became the story of the “Biden Crime Family.” And yet turn a completely blind eye to overt corruption. They can because we’re screaming about whether or not the government has to respect the fourth or first amendments. The courts plod along on these cases, with the shadow docket in the tank for Trump. Only going to bat for the constitution and norms when money is involved. Any sense the Supreme Court was non political has been dashed and as far as I’m concerned, sympathy for my causes is more than jurisprudence.

I think it’s too early to declare “Flood the Zone” a dead strategy. Because Trump knows he’ll walk away with billions, hidden behind a screen of outrage. The next president will likely face new limits on their pardon power or power to gut agencies. This is especially true if the next president is a Democrat and the Supreme Court will suddenly rediscover the constitution limits the power of the President.